Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
2.0 miles South of Arcata
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.0 miles South of Arcata
40.8378°N, 124.0916°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 11:20:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
70h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.76 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
21.7 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 17.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
790d4ce5de12b685cfa0d1ee3cb2b447d06c659fcdc05971fb4b7e9764011dfe
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.84--124.09-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.