Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
8.6 miles North-East of Burney
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles North-East of Burney
40.9951°N, 121.5916°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 06:38:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
267.5 km
167.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
25.5 km
Pred. 1.9 km vs actual 23.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
65b320e28fc53dec7c4ac2ae408db62f6dea23e93211c63e9b2a6011f50e451a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-41.00--121.59-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.