Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
8.2 miles West of Fall River Mills
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.2 miles West of Fall River Mills
41.0248°N, 121.5929°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 15:26:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
66h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
217.2 km
117.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.40
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
7.4 km
Pred. 1.9 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
af5970eb538ab5c8a4e25e31922c4cc989c52b65369ac95e2570c119f6afcefa
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-41.02--121.59-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_013753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.